US Intelligence Can Confirm Only One-Third of Iran’s Missile Arsenal Destroyed as War Nears One-Month Mark

The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about one-third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal as the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic nears its one-month mark, per Reuters.

The status of around another third of the arsenal is less clear, with officials believing many of those missiles were likely damaged, destroyed, or buried deep in underground tunnels and bunkers during the intense bombing campaign. The assessment, which has not been previously reported in detail, was shared by five sources who spoke to the news agency on condition of anonymity.

A similar level of uncertainty exists regarding Iran’s drone capability, with one source indicating that the US has some degree of confidence that roughly one-third of those assets have been destroyed. The remaining inventory remains a significant concern for US and Israeli planners.

The intelligence appears to contrast with public statements by President Donald Trump, who said on Thursday that Iran has “very few rockets left.” Trump also appeared to acknowledge the ongoing threat from remaining Iranian missiles and drones, particularly in relation to any future operations aimed at securing the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.

US strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday, and Central Command has reported that 92 percent of the Iranian navy’s large vessels have been sunk. However, Central Command has so far declined to provide a precise figure on the destruction of Iran’s missile or drone capabilities.

One senior US official expressed skepticism about Washington’s ability to produce a fully accurate count, citing the difficulty of assessing how many missiles were stored in deeply buried underground facilities before the conflict began. Also, the US has not publicly disclosed its pre-war estimate of the size of Iran’s missile stockpile.

In addition, some Pentagon officials are concerned that the US military has been expending its own missile stockpiles – particularly Tomahawk cruise missiles – at a faster rate than anticipated. According to a report, the US has fired over 850 Tomahawk missiles in the four weeks of the campaign, prompting internal discussions about replenishment and production speed.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded that the US military “has everything it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of the President’s choosing – and beyond,” while noting that President Trump continues to push defense contractors to accelerate production of American-made weapons.

Meanwhile, Iran-linked hackers publicly claimed on Friday to have breached the personal email account of FBI Director Kash Patel, publishing what they said were photographs and documents. The Justice Department confirmed the breach, and the material appears authentic according to initial assessments.

On the diplomatic front, G7 foreign ministers meeting outside Paris pressed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for clarity on American plans regarding Iran. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stressed the need for closer unity among allies, noting the close cooperation between Iran and Russia. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper highlighted concerns over Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global shipping and energy prices.

While the US and Israel have conducted extensive strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, the uncertainty surrounding the remaining missile and drone inventory underscores the challenges of fully degrading Iran’s capabilities, particularly those housed in hardened underground facilities.